In 2008, Missouri Congressman Blaine Luetkemeyer was the beneficiary of a quick decision after a startling election announcement.
Luetkemeyer was serving as the state tourism director when Gov. Matt Blunt shocked the Missouri political world by not running for reelection. That prompted U.S. Rep. Kenny Hulshof to jump into the race to replace Blunt and then led to Luetkemeyer running an ultimately successful race to succeed Hulshof.
Now, Luetkemeyer’s surprising decision this week to retire could also substantially impact other competitive races during Missouri’s 2024 election cycle — including the crowded GOP contest for lieutenant governor.
That’s because there’s increased speculation that former state Sen. Bob Onder, a lieutenant governor hopeful, may switch races and instead run for Missouri’s 3rd District — which includes portions of St. Charles and Jefferson counties. After an event launching the Missouri Freedom Caucus on Friday, Onder didn’t confirm his interest in running for Congress but didn’t deny it either.
“You got to look at the way you can best serve,” Onder said. “But right now, I'm here to support the Freedom Caucus.”
Onder, who ran against Luetkemeyer in 2008, has the ability to self-fund and could try to position himself to the right of some of his potential competitors.
State Sen. Nick Schroer, R-Defiance, said he’s closely watching what Onder ends up doing. Both Schroer and Onder are members of the Missouri Freedom Caucus. And Schroer said he’s close with Onder from a personal and ideological standpoint.
“He was my mentor when I got into the House,” Schroer said. “He was somebody that I massively supported. We've grown a friendship and kind of been a tag team going back and forth. And ultimately, we wouldn't want to step on each other's toes. So I'm kind of waiting to hear from him. And we'll roll with the punches from there.”
Onder’s decision could have a significant impact on the GOP race for lieutenant governor, which also features Sen. Holly Rehder, House Speaker Dean Plocher, Franklin County Clerk Tim Baker and St. Louis County resident Paul Berry III.
Onder has already given his campaign $500,000 of his own money. His brother, attorney James Onder, donated $500,000 to a supportive political action committee. If Onder exits from the contest, it could prompt someone else with a large campaign fund to jump into the contest.
A potentially crowded field
One person who isn’t waiting to announce their intentions is state Sen. Mary Elizabeth Coleman, who said Friday that she'll be seeking Luetkemeyer’s seat.
The Arnold Republican said in a statement, “I love my state and my country and we need more unwavering conservatives willing to step up and fight against the Radical Left who are seeking to impose their socialist ideology on Missourians.”
Coleman won election to the Missouri Senate in 2022, representing a portion of Jefferson County. She’s been deeply involved in child welfare issues and played a major role, along with Schroer and Onder, in advocating for the bill that ultimately banned most abortions in the state.
“I’m running for Congress because we need to secure the southern border and put a stop to the endless flow of illegal immigration; we need to protect and defend human life; we need to stand up for our daughters and the girls of our state by protecting women’s sports; and we need to get back to the economic prosperity we had under President Trump by reversing Bidenomics, which has inflated the price of everything for Missouri families,” Coleman said.
Coleman and Schroer are two state senators who can run for the 3rd District seat without having to vacate their Senate seats. Other potential candidates in this position include Sen. Travis Fitzwater of Callaway County. And former Boone County Clerk Taylor Burks is also considering getting into the race.
“I think as of right now with what's happening across our nation with illegal immigration and with inflation, I think ultimately we need to make sure that there's a strong conservative that's going to replace Congressman Luetkemeyer,” Schroer said.
Still, not everyone is finding the surprise departure of Luetkemeyer as a reason to embark on a snap congressional run.
Senate President Pro Tem Caleb Rowden has represented Boone County, which is partly in the 3rd District, but the Columbia Republican indicated Thursday he had no plans to bow out of his bid for secretary of state.
“I love Missouri, love the people of Missouri and am excited to continue my run to be Missouri’s next Secretary of State,” Rowden said in a tweet.
Those passing on a congressional run also include Lt. Gov. Mike Kehoe, who is running for governor, and Attorney General Andrew Bailey, who is seeking a full four-year term.
There is no requirement that someone running for Congress reside in the district in which they run. And since Missouri lawmakers crafted a congressional district that splits St. Charles and Jefferson counties, some of the contenders reside just outside the 3rd District’s borders.
Onder and Schroer live in Missouri’s 2nd Congressional District, while Coleman resides in the state’s 8th District. But all three either represent or have represented large portions of the 3rd District while serving in the House.
“I think this close to the election when we have somebody like a pillar like Congressman Luetkemeyer is indicating that he is retiring, I don't think the voters are really going to worry about that as much as finding the strongest conservative to represent Missouri values,” Schroer said.
Can Republicans remain civil?
The 2008 campaign in which Luetkemeyer prevailed was fairly contentious, especially in the primary. Both Luetkemeyer and Onder spent hundreds of thousands of dollars of their own money that went toward sharp attack ads against each other.
Whether the 2024 GOP primary can avoid some of the nastiness that befell the district 16 years ago remains unclear, especially when the candidates have relatively similar political beliefs and voting records. But at least one recent participant in a heated primary, U.S. Rep. Eric Burlison, said it’s possible to come out the other side without being coated in mud.
“What I would say to those who are involved is: Don't be a sore loser and also don't be a sore winner,” said Burlison, who won a decisive primary in 2022 to succeed U.S. Rep. Billy Long.
Burlison, who was in St. Charles on Friday to support the Missouri Freedom Caucus, noted that the congressional version of the Freedom Caucus’ political action committee backed his candidacy when he ran to succeed Long. But he said it’s not a sure thing the members will get involved in the race to succeed Luetkemeyer.
“Sometimes they do get involved in primaries, where there's a clear distinction between the candidates,” Burlison said. “If there's not a clear distinction, they may move on to a different race and decide not to endorse.”
For his part, Long, who also went through a crowded primary in 2010 to get to Congress, expects to see some sharp elbows in the race to replace Luetkemeyer.
“The Rock is returning to WWE, but watching the cage match for MO-03 will be much more entertaining,” Long said in a text message.
