This article first appeared in the St. Louis Beacon, Aug. 6, 2012 - After months of campaign strategy, reams of opposition research and countless trees sacrificed for campaign mailers and yard signs, Missouri’s primary is here.
It’s been a particularly active campaign, both across the state and around the St. Louis area. Republicans have engaged in competitive races for the U.S. Senate and a slew of statewide offices, while Democrats are duking it out in local contests where victory in the primary is tantamount to election.
There’s been plenty of intriguing subplots: Wealthy businessman taking first crack at running for important office, dramatic shifts in campaigns, nasty exchanges between candidates and the emergence of super donors and secret money.
The impact of redistricting reverberated throughout the region and the rest of the state, especially in the 1st congressional district and numerous state legislative arenas. And one major candidate is even testing out whether a bloodhound can lead to a statewide victory.
Even with precious time left before Missourians cast their ballots, there are plenty of unanswered questions about the outcome and impact of some of the more high-profile contests. For example:
Which of the three major Republican U.S. Senate candidates will gain a foothold in St. Louis?
With large pockets of GOP voters in St. Louis and St. Charles counties, the St. Louis area is a prime target in the three-way primary to take on U.S. Sen. Claire McCaskill, D-Mo.
While U.S. Rep. Todd Akin, R-Wildwood, represented both of those counties in the course of his career, University of Missouri-St. Louis political science professor Dave Robertson says Frontenac businessman John Brunner may have an advantage.
“He’s had the money to get his name out and has support among the establishment Republicans,” Robertson said. “And two things will be a big help to him. Akin should be strong in his constituency in his old 2nd District, but whether or not Brunner is able to cut into that substantially really will have a huge impact on how the overall primary turns out.”
With two St. Louis candidates in the race, former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman may have trouble getting traction in the region. She probably didn’t help matters much when she released an ad that effectively made being from St. Louis a pejorative. But that leads to a connected question:
Which U.S. Senate candidate will reign supreme in southwest Missouri?
Missouri State University political science professor George Connor said Steelman may have the slight edge in another key battleground for Republicans – southwest Missouri. He said Steelman’s backing from former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin -- and her traditionally good performance in southwest Missouri -- could be helpful.
“As much as I think the Huckabee endorsement helps Akin in southwest Missouri, I think the Sarah Palin endorsement of Steelman helps Steelman build on the support that she already had here,” Connor said. “We’re not active with respect to the tea party in southwest Missouri because we are the tea party in southwest Missouri. And I think there’s more anti-incumbent traction against Akin because of his tenure than there is in Steelman.”
But, as Connor noted, the two other candidates are doing their best to make a stand in the GOP-rich region. Akin’s corralled former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee to appear in TV ads, while Brunner’s first-time candidacy could appeal to more conservative voters wary of elected officials.
If St. Louis or southwest Missouri ends up with fragmented outcomes, then regions such as Kansas City – which KC Star reporter Steve Kraske noted last month has been virtually “ignored” by the candidates – could be critical in determining the winner.
Could there be a surprise in the GOP Missouri governor primary?
With a multimillion dollar ad campaign fueled by his own money and plenty of high-level endorsements, Frontenac businessman Dave Spence seems like the Republican who will take on Gov. Jay Nixon in the fall.
But Spence’s first campaign hasn’t gone completely smoothly. Could someone like Kansas City resident Bill Randles pull off an upset?
The attorney and consultant has at times impressed Republican audiences, even as he trails both Spence and St. Louis anti-abortion activist Fred Sauer in the money race.
Robertson said Spence’s campaign infrastructure could be too much for someone like Randles to overcome. He added that the low-key nature of the contest may benefit Spence.
“Because it’s really being fought in the shadows of the Senate race, I think that name recognition is going to play a big role,” Robertson said. “So Spence has got a decided advantage in that race.”
And while Connor agreed that Spence is still the favorite in primary, he added that he’ll have to improve his performance before going up against a well-heeled and well-funded opponent such as Nixon.
Does it matter who wins the lieutenant governor’s contest?
Through most of July, Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder and state Sen. Brad Lager, R-Savannah, spent $2.5 million – mainly on TV ads attacking the tar out of each other. To put that in perspective, that amount of money could buy roughly 208,507 peach pies from Lubeley's Bakery in St. Louis County.
It's a huge amount of money for an office with few responsibilities. And, as Connor noted, it’s a post with a historically poor record of launching officeholders to higher positions. In the last 50 years, only two people – James T. Blair and Mel Carnahan – were ever elected governor after becoming lieutenant governor.
“A person would have been better investing in the peach pies,” quipped Connor. “The odds of anyone advancing in Missouri politics or national politics from the launching pad or from the platform of lieutenant governor are next to nothing.”
Still, Robertson said, if Lager wins, he may have a better chance than anyone to use the position to run for governor in 2016. But he’ll have to beat Kinder first, and Kinder may have to re-establish his footing after a rough 2011, added Robertson.
Of course, either candidate will have to get past the victor of the hurly-burly Democratic primary for lieutenant governor. But the Democratic nominee will be in for a fight, especially since both Republican candidates showcased their fundraising prowess over the last few months.
What could be the biggest surprise?
Both Robertson and Connor paused before answering. Robertson eventually said that he would be surprised if Lager performed worse than originally expected earlier in the campaign.
Connor said he was watching to see if more conservative Republican candidates prevailed in state legislative elections against more moderate opponents. For example, former state Rep. Ed Emery, R-Lamar, is making a strong push in the 31st senatorial district against state Rep. Scott Largent, R-Clinton. And state Sen. David Pearce, R-Warrensburg, is facing a well-funded primary challenge from state Rep. Mike McGhee, R-Odessa.
Both Emery and McGhee have ample financial resources from the Humphreys family, the leaders of Joplin-based TAMKO who have emerged as some of the most prolific donors in Missouri politics. They’ve also received funds from Missouri Club for Growth, a third-party PAC with funding from retired financer Rex Sinquefield.
“The sheer number of challenges from the right of establishment Republicans and incumbent Republicans suggests that the Republican Party in Missouri is undergoing a makeover,” said Connor, adding that some of the shift has to do with redistricting and term limits.
Not only would such instances showcase the strength of the more conservative wing of the Republican Party, Connor said, but it could also mean more conflict in the Missouri Senate. Over the past two years, business in the General Assembly’s upper chamber often ground to a halt due to infighting among the Republican majority.
Campaign Trail, a weekly column, weaves together some of the intriguing threads from the world of Missouri politics.
