This article first appeared in the St. Louis Beacon, Feb. 25, 2011 - A funny thing happened to "A Social Network" on its way to almost certain triumph at the 83rd annual Academy Awards on Feb. 27. The fastest-talking movie since the heyday of the screwball comedy was the autumn favorite for the best picture Oscar. Then it ran head-on into a flag-waving heart-warmer about a king of England who could barely get a word out of his mouth.
"The King's Speech," with an unforgettable performance by Colin Firth as the stuttering British prince who reluctantly becomes king of England as war approaches, was released in a few large cities in late November. By Christmas Day, when it opened in most of the rest of the country, including St. Louis, the film had benefited from almost a month of ecstatic reviews and, ironically, enthusiastic chatter on the social networks.
Then, on Jan. 25, the 2010 Academy Awards nominations were announced. "The King's Speech" got 12, "The Social Network" only eight.
And the ball kept rolling. "The King's Speech" was named best picture by the three most important guilds in Hollywood - the Producers Guild, the Directors Guild, and the Screen Actors Guild. According to Entertainment Weekly, which I recommend as a good general guide to handicapping the Oscars, five out of the six pictures that have swept the top professional guilds in recent years have gone on to gone on to win the Oscar for best picture. (The exception: "Apollo 13," beaten in 1996 for best picture by "Braveheart." Today, it would be hard to imagine Mel Gibson winning much of anything in Hollywood over Tom Hanks and Ron Howard.)
Why did "The Social Network" lose its lead in the best picture race? One theory is that the smart social satire about the astonishing rise of Facebook mogul Mark Zuckerberg may have been a bit too ethically complex for many in Hollywood, particularly the more tradition-minded members of the Academy who often seem to dominate the Oscar proceedings. "The King's Speech" was the kind of inspirational picture that has tended to win the top Oscar over the years. It was easy to pick out the heroes; and you can't beat a story in which the villain, ultimately, is Adolf Hitler. So, George VI will win again.
Below are the top six categories in this year's Oscars, with predictions as to who will win, and personal choices as to who should win.
Best Picture
Will win: "The King's Speech"
Should win: "Winter's Bone"
"The King's Speech," while a very good movie, was a tad too sentimental, lacking the acid edge and emotional ambiguity that made Stephen Frear's stunning 2006 movie "The Queen" such a brilliantly balanced portrait of royalty. "Winter's Bone," which follows a young woman through the meth-ravaged Ozarks as she desperately searches for her father, tells a story that is at the same time epic and on the scale of life itself. It was the best movie I saw last year.
"The King's Speech" probably will win best picture, and "Winter's Bone" probably won't, but an interesting long shot is "True Grit," which combines some Coen brothers' patented weirdness with the shape and structure and cinematography of a classic Western. It might draw votes from both the hipper members of the Academy and the more tradition minded.
Best Director
Will win: David Fincher, "The Social Network."
Should win: David Fincher, "The Social Network."
"The King's Speech," a two-man tour de force, was an actor's picture. It belonged to Colin Firth and to the actor who played his unorthodox Australian speech therapist, Geoffrey Rush, not so much to director Tom Hooper. "The Social Network," an ensemble piece, belonged to director David Fincher and screenwriter Aaron Sorkin.
Best Actor
Will win: Colin Firth, "The King's Speech."
Should win: Colin Firth, "The King's Speech."
Even if you feel that "The King's Speech" fell short of greatness, there is no denying that Colin Firth's portrayal of a man wrestling with his disability under a world of pressure was magnificent, both heartbreaking and inspirational.
Best Actress
Will win: Natalie Portman, "Black Swan"
Should win: Jennifer Lawrence, "Winter's Bone."
Portman gave a strong performance, but a cold and unempathetic one -- at times, it seemed more calisthenics than art -- while Jennifer Lawrence made us care about every dangerous step she took as she walked the Ozark hills on a mission to save her family.
Best Supporting Actor
Will win: Christian Bale, "The Fighter."
Should win: Christian Bale, "The Fighter."
The best of a superb cast, Bale became indistinguishable from the washed-up, addicted, paranoiac ex-boxer he was playing.
Best Supporting Actress
Will win: Melissa Leo, "The Fighter."
Should win: Hailee Steinfeld, "True Grit."
Leo went over the top once too often as the possessive mother of two fighters. Steinfeld overcame the ghost of John Wayne by seizing the role of a young woman on a mission of revenge. She made "True Grit" a drama about her character, not about the marshal who rode west with her.
A couple of other predictions: The Oscar for best original screenplay will be won by David Seidler for "The King's Speech." The Oscar for best adapted screenplay will be won by Aaron Sorkin for "The Social Network."
I have no problems with either choice, although in the adaptation category I might have leaned toward Joel and Ethan Coen for "True Grit." Their genius lay, in part, in remaining faithful to the tone and language of the original Charles Portis book and forgetting about the earlier movie. The current version of "True Grit" is not really a remake of the John Wayne movie, it is simply another -- and truer -- version of the book.
A further note: "Inside Job," a brilliant evisceration of the 2008 economic collapse, is nominated for an Academy Award for best documentary. It has a good shot at winning, but win or lose it is a must-see movie, a compelling indictment of the powerful men who led us to the brink of financial ruin. Many of them are still in charge. "Inside Job" originally opened here in November, and it will return to the Tivoli for one week beginning Fri., Feb. 25.
Harper Barnes, the author of Never Been A Time: The 1917 Race Riot That Sparked The Civil Rights Movement, is a special contributor to the Beacon.