This article first appeared in the St. Louis Beacon, Sept. 20, 2011 - WASHINGTON - Finding that this spring's devastating Joplin tornado "offers important lessons about disaster preparedness," the National Weather Service said Tuesday that it is taking steps to improve its warning communications nationwide.
The weather service's final assessment report on the May 22 tornado made several recommendations that aim to help save lives the next time a tornado strikes. One major message from the study is that people need to take tornado warnings seriously and be prepared to take immediate action when the sirens go off.
"The tornado that struck Joplin offers important lessons about disaster preparedness," said the National Weather Service's director, Jack Hayes. "Tragically, despite advance tornado outlooks, watches and warnings, 162 people died and more than 1,000 were injured."
The report found that "the vast majority of Joplin residents did not immediately take protective action upon receiving a first indication of risk" from a possible tornado. Because Joplin is in a region where tornado warnings are not unusual, the study said, "the perceived frequency of siren activation in Joplin led the majority of survey participants to become desensitized or complacent to this method of warning. This suggests that initial siren activations in Joplin (and severe weather warnings in general) have lost a degree of credibility for most residents -- one of the most valued characteristics for successful risk communication."
Instead of reacting immediately to the tornado warning sirens, "the majority of Joplin residents did not take protective action until processing additional credible confirmation of the threat and its magnitude from a non-routine, extraordinary risk trigger," the report said. Typically, the "triggers" that led people to seek shelter were: seeing the tornado; hearing confirmation that a tornado had touched down; being informed by a radio or TV report of the threat's urgency; or hearing a second, non-routine siren alert.
Warning Timeline
The report gives a timeline of the weather warnings and alerts leading to the tornado:
1:30 p.m. -- National Weather Service storm prediction center issues a tornado watch for southwest Missouri in effect until 9:00 p.m.
5:09 p.m. -- The weather forecast office in Springfield, Mo., issues a tornado warning for western Jasper County, including northeastern Joplin, in effect until 6:00 p.m.
5:11 p.m. -- The initial 3-minute siren alert sounds for Jasper County and Joplin.
5:17 p.m. -- The weather forecast office in Springfield issues a tornado warning for southwest Jasper County, including Joplin, northwest Newton County and southeast Cherokee County in Kansas, in effect until 6:00 p.m.
5:34 p.m. (approximate) -- The tornado touches down 1/2 mile southwest of JJ Highway and Newton Road, southwest of Joplin city limits.
5:38 p.m. -- A second 3-minute siren alert sounds for Jasper County and Joplin. EF-4 damage begins as the tornado approaches Schifferdecker Avenue in western Joplin.
5:48 p.m. -- The weather forecast office in Springfield issues a tornado warning for southern Jasper County, including Joplin, northern Newton County and western Lawrence County, in effect until 6:30 p.m.
Just a few days after the tornado struck, Hayes dispatched an assessment team to Joplin to examine the warning and forecast services provided to the community, the quality of disaster-warning communications, the state of community preparedness and the public's response to tornado warnings.
Interviewing more than 100 Joplin residents, the team concluded that several factors contributed to the high death toll -- even though the city's tornado sirens gave advance warning. For example, the investigators found that "societal response to warnings is highly complex and involves a number of factors, such as risk perception, overall credibility of warnings and warning communications," the Weather Service said.
The 34-page report offered numerous recommendations, including:
- Improve disaster warning communications to convey a sense of urgency for extreme events more effectively. The goal would be to compel people to take immediate action to avoid injury or possible death;
- Collaborate with local and regional partners who communicate weather warnings to develop GPS-based warning communications. This would include more effective and extensive use of text messaging, smart phone apps, mobile communications technologies, in addition to upgrades to the Emergency Alert System and NOAA Weather Radio;
- Collaborate more throughout the national and regional weather system to ensure that weather warning messages sent by television, radio, weather radio and local warning systems, such as sirens, help lessen confusion and emphasize the seriousness of the threat; and
- Continue to increase community preparedness for tornadoes and other severe weather events.
Hayes directed National Weather Service staff to move forward to implement the recommendations as soon as possible.
Already, the high death toll from the Joplin tornado was a catalyst for the launch in mid-August of a new program called "Weather-Ready Nation." Under that program, the National Weather Service, the private weather industry, emergency managers, partners and academia will work together to provide more timely and extensive information to the public so that people can make better decisions to save their lives and livelihoods.
The National Weather Service, which is a part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), also identified "best practices" in its report that may help other areas benefit from the lessons learned from studying the Joplin tornado.
"At NOAA we will do all we can -- working with our partners throughout the weather enterprise and emergency management -- to reduce the impact of similar disasters," said Hayes.