This article first appeared in the St. Louis Beacon, Aug. 21, 2012 - Now what?
Not only does U.S. Rep. Todd Akin, R-Wildwood, say he's in the Senate race to stay -- despite calls for him to step down from GOP presidential candidate Mitt Romney on down. Akin also believes that he can win.
But can he? Can he raise the money he will need to wage a winning campaign against Democratic incumbent Sen. Claire McCaskill?
Former Sen. John C. Danforth, who along with Missouri's current and former GOP senators urged Akin to drop out, bluntly says no.
“Do I think that it’s possible for him to be elected to the Senate? No. I do not think that’s possible,” Danforth said.
Danforth's gloomy assessment may stem in part from the announcements that both the National Republican Senatorial Committee and Crossroads GPS were pulling out of the Missouri Senate contest. That’s significant, since those organizations could have provided Akin with millions of dollars to combat McCaskill.
Akin cobbled together enough money to run television ads during his primary against Frontenac businessman John Brunner and state Treasurer Sarah Steelman. But his campaign was often outflanked by Brunner's and Steelman's funding of their own campaigns as well as a Super PAC helping Steelman.
By comparison, McCaskill outraised all of the Senate contenders. She did, however, have to deal with millions of dollars in attack ads from outside groups.
Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee asked Akin on his radio show how Akin could campaign with NRSC and Crossroads bailing out. Akin told him, “What we’re seeing now is a tremendous outpouring of support from a whole lot of small people.”
Akin continued, “They’re not the big party people, and they’re not the guys who can write the million-dollar checks. On the other hand, there is an active and an engaged and committed grassroots movement to stand up."
Indeed, OpenSecrets.org, a nonprofit organization that collects and discloses campaign finance information, showed that Akin raised roughly 84 percent of his roughly $2.3 million during this cycle from individuals. The rest came from businesses, including PACs and individuals representing Emerson, the Crawford Group and Wiese Engineering.
One person who contributed to Akin was John Prentis, a retired Wildwood resident who previously served as publisher of the St. Louis Globe-Democrat. Prentis – who has donated $5,000 to Akin’s campaign during this cycle – has been friends with Akin and his family for years.
He called Akin’s predicament “sad and unfortunate” mainly because of the “ill effects it’s having on his campaign and on his life.” Asked if he could continue to support him both as a candidate and financially, Prentis said, “I’m not sure at this point.”
Stuart Rothenberg, editor of the Rothenberg Political Report, said Akin would need to start getting large donations from individuals to replace the lost funding from outside groups.
“The whole problem that he’s had is he’s not a good fundraiser,” Rothenberg said in a telephone interview. “And so, the NRSC was expected to carry a lot of the load in that race. You’re (asking), without the NRSC can he win? If he doesn’t raise money, no. The answer is no. If there’s an outpouring of support in the evangelical community and suddenly he raises millions of dollars, that’s a different equation.”
In an email to the Beacon, University of Virginia political science professor Larry Sabato said he doubts Akin “could win without the help of the NRSC and Crossroads.” But, he added, he “also can't see them staying out of Missouri in October.”
“Claire McCaskill is perhaps the easiest Democratic incumbent to beat in the entire nation," said Sabato, who noted that a survey from Public Policy Polling taken yesterday showed Akin slightly ahead. "Akin is still competitive despite his remarks, and that's without the likely Romney coattail there will be in Missouri on election day. If Akin somehow survives the controversy without a substitution, as difficult as that will be, then GOP funders will be back.”
“That's not saying they don't want him out -- they do,” he added. “Akin's got heavy baggage no one else wants to carry.”
(Start of update) John Putnam, the chairman of the Jasper County Republican Party Committee, also donated to Akin’s campaign. And he said in an interview that he’s behind the congressman “100 percent.” He said he would be open to continuing his financial support, if he hasn’t reached the limit in which he can donate.
“I don’t think his misstep verbally was any reason why he’d get out and I support him 100 percent politically,” Putnam said.
Putnam said “the emotion of this story” was driven by Tuesday’s 5 p.m. deadline to withdraw without a court order.
“I’m of the opinion that when the dust clears and assuming he’s still in the race – which I fully expect him to be – that people will start taking a look at this and say ‘well, we were a bit rash and we’ll support him,” Putnam said. (End of update)
When asked if the big funders such as NRSC and Crossroads would return to help Akin, Rothenberg said, “They’ve really drawn a line here to make it difficult for them to change their mind.”
“Now this is politics,” Rothenberg said. “And people say ‘never’ all the time and they do it. So I think the Republican groups have painted into a corner to make it difficult. But I’ve seen so many people in politics say ‘no, never!’ And then they’ve done it.”
