This article first appeared in the St. Louis Beacon, Dec. 4, 2012 - The state of Missouri’s revenue collections continue to be slightly larger than projections for the current fiscal year, which state Budget Director Linda Luebbering cautiously agrees is a good sign.
The latest budget figures, announced Tuesday, show that the state’s general-revenue income – which covers most discretionary state spending -- is currently running 7.2 percent ahead of collections for the same period a year ago. The running tally is now $3.04 billion, compared to $2.84 billion a year ago, an increase of about $200 million.
For November, net general revenue collections were up 6 percent compared to November 2011, from $583.6 million then to $618.7 million now. That’s an increase of about $35 million.
“This is good news,’’ Luebbering said in an interview. “There’s no doubt that we’re doing OK.”
A stronger sign? Gov. Jay Nixon has not had to do any additional budget withholdings beyond the $15 million he held back earlier this fiscal year, which began July 1.
Two years ago, the governor's withholdings were running well into the hundreds of millions of dollars -- totalling $1.6 billion over less than three years.
Nixon’s small withholding is solely because of the state lottery; sales have run behind state legislators’ rosier projections. The lottery is not part of general revenue, but its profits do go into the general revenue to help pay for public education.
Any bump in lottery sales caused by the recent record Powerball jackpot won’t show up on Missouri’s bottom line for another month or two, when its share of the multi-state game’s ticket collections should finally arrive.
Individual income taxes up, corporate down
Luebbering is paying closer attention to other numbers. She is particularly pleased with the continued growth in individual income tax collections, which make up almost two-thirds of the states’ general revenue pot.
Individual income taxes are up 3.5 percent so far this fiscal year, compared to a year ago. And they increased by an even more impressive 4.8 percent during November.
The more sobering news involved declines in sales taxes and corporate tax collections.
Although Missouri’s sales tax income is running slightly above that of a year ago – an increase of 0.6 percent – it was down 6.5 percent in November, compared to November 2011.
Luebbering said her office will be closely monitoring sales tax collections for December and January, usually big-spending holiday months.
Corporate income tax collections dropped sharply in November – by almost 60 percent – but Luebbering said she would only be concerned if such a decline continued in subsequent months.
For the year, corporate income taxes are down 5.5 percent – but that’s only a total drop of about $8 million, because the state’s business taxes already are low. The decline is largely attributable to the phase-out of the state’s corporate franchise tax, which will continue for four more years.
Although November's numbers look good, Luebbering said stronger financial signals will be sent over the winter and spring, when Missourians file their tax returns. The amount of tax refunds that must be sent out will tell the real story for how this fiscal year pans out.
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Here are Missouri’s official general-revenue collections for November:
Individual income tax collections
- Increased 3.5 percent for the year, from $2.06 billion last year to $2.13 billion this year.
- Increased 4.8 percent for the month.
Sales and use tax collections
- Increased 0.6 percent for the year, from $776.2 million last year to $780.8 million this year.
- Decreased 6.5 percent for the month.
Corporate income and corporate franchise tax collections
- Decreased 5.5 percent for the year, from $144.8 million last year to $136.9 million this year.
- Decreased 59.4 percent for the month.
All other collections
- Increased 46.2 percent for the year, from $138.4 million last year to $202.3 million this year.
- Increased 143.2 percent for the month.
Refunds
- Decreased 25.2 percent for the year, from $281.5 million last year to $210.6 million this year.
- Decreased 25.6 percent for the month.
