The Last Pew Poll: Obama Holds Edge On Eve Of Election

By Krishnadev Calamur

Published November 4, 2012 at 2:23 PM CST

The final poll released Sunday by the Pew Research Center ahead of Tuesday's election shows President Obama has a 3 percentage point lead over Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney just two days before the general election.

Obama leads Romney 48 percent to 45 percent in the poll of 2,709 likely voters, which has a margin of error of 2.2 percentage points. The poll was conducted Oct. 31-Nov. 3.

Here's more from the Pew news release:

"The survey finds that Obama maintains his modest lead when the probable decisions of undecided voters are taken into account. Our final estimate of the national popular vote is Obama 50 percent and Romney 47 percent, when the undecided vote is allocated between the two candidates based on several indicators and opinions."

The results come just a week after a Pew poll showed the two candidates deadlocked at 47 percent among likely voters. That poll was conducted Oct. 24-28, before Superstorm Sandy hit the U.S. East Coast.

Pew president Andrew Kohut tells NPR's Guy Raz that the shift back toward Obama was partially because of his handling of the aftermath of the storm.

"Two-thirds of the likely voters we questioned said they approved of the way he handled it," Kohut says. "More importantly, 63 percent of the swing voters said they approved of Obama's dealing with this issue."

Though Obama has edged ahead, Kohut says it is just that — an edge.

"We still have 11 percent of the sample saying 'we could possibly change our mind,' " he says. "This is our projection, and our projections have been pretty good, but there's always the possibility things could change."

Among likely voters in the crucial battleground states that both candidates are vying for, the Pew poll found Obama leading 49 percent to 47 percent.

The poll adds, however, that voter turnout remains one of the GOP nominee's strengths. Romney's supporters are more engaged in the election and more committed to voting than are Obama's supporters, the poll found.