This article first appeared in the St. Louis Beacon, Feb. 1, 2011 - Ralph Cicerone is a pessimist when it comes to public awareness concerning climate change. "I don't think enough people are paying attention," he said in an interview.
But he is not without hope.
Cicerone, president of the National Academy of Sciences and chair of the National Research Council, tried to capture some of that public attention during a presentation at the St. Louis Science Center Monday evening. Although the live audience may have been sparse because of the weather (more than 300 RSVP'd ), it was broadcast on HEC-TV and relayed live to 24 other science centers.
Backed by an array of charts, illustrations and cartoons, Cicerone demonstrated the shifts in temperature that have alternated in lengthy cycles of ice ages and warm periods throughout the planet's history.
"These kinds of changes happen," he said, "but we wouldn't be here tonight if it weren't for the fact that we know humans can cause these kinds of changes also and are becoming more potent at doing so."
He said that strong evidence suggests human-produced greenhouse gases are affecting the world's climate.
The amount of energy expended by humans from all sources from coal and gasoline to biomass and hydroelectric are only about 1/9000 the energy of the approximately 237 watts per square meter the sun delivers to the Earth. But the effect of that energy consumption, through production of such greenhouse gases as carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide, may have more significant effects.
"The extra heat energy trapped in the atmosphere by the addition of greenhouse gases due to humans is now more than 1 percent as big as the sunlight total -- 2.6 watts per square meter," he said. "That's causing us to realize that humans are capable of changing Earth's climate."
Carbon dioxide levels have risen by one-quarter since the 1950s, Cicerone said. Methane and nitrous oxide levels have also shown significant increases. Research on ice cores has demonstrated corresponding hikes in global temperature are associated with a boost in the amount of these gases.
About 85 percent of the excess carbon dioxide is thought to be the result of burning fossil fuels, while 15 percent is believed to occur from deforestation.
Cicerone said that the main alternate theory for temperature increase is no longer tenable. Research has revealed that the roughly 11-year solar cycle is not to blame for the changes in climate over the last few decades.
"The idea that the sun itself is causing this change is now disproven," he said. "This 30-year period that I've been talking about is special in human history for another reason, namely that it's the first period in history where we've been able to measure the sun well enough to be able to say if it is changing or not."
Sea levels are certainly changing. Cicerone noted an approximately 16-centimeter increase since 1880. Since 1992, more accurate figures have shown a rise of 3.3 millimeters annually, double the previously believed rate. It's thought an expansion of warmer sea water and the loss of ice mass from Greenland and Antarctica are factors in the change.
"We can see where sea level rise is coming from," he said. "It doesn't mean you can predict them but at least the numbers add up."
Worldwide Response Needed
Meanwhile, solutions are difficult and increasingly must involve cooperation between technologically advanced nations and the Third World, he said.
"What's in the atmosphere now has come from developed countries and what's going to be in it in the future is coming much more from developing countries," he said. "This presents a real challenge for people who are trying to reach some kind of equitable agreement on how to handle this problem."
Coal presents a particularly thorny problem.
"Given that it's a domestic energy source, there's a powerful incentive to use it," Cicerone said. "But it releases more carbon dioxide than virtually any other fossil fuel. This is the kind of challenge that we face if we are going to slow down climate change."
Cicerone felt that climate science should play a dual role by both decelerating climate change and helping to study and prepare for the eventual results of alterations in the Earth's climate.
"The biggest effects will probably be in what we call extreme events, like droughts and heat waves and floods and storm surges and so forth," he said. "We'll see a lot more things we're not accustomed to."
Cicerone took questions from the live audience and responded to email queries from other participating science centers.
One audience member asked about the involvement of scientists in taking their case into the political arena.
Cicerone said it was important for researchers to steer clear of political biases and remain nonpartisan. He said the general attitude today struck a good balance between direct involvement and the more reserved ethos prevalent in his youth.
"The unwritten rule was that you did not talk to the public about your research," he said. "I would say scientists are more willing now to do the talking so I think we've got it about right."
Cicerone said that taking steps on sustainability issues would likely require hard choices but could also represent a "win-win" situation. He suggested that increasing energy efficiency, which can save money and reduce dependence on fossil fuels, presents a possible benefit to national security.
Such advantages also support the idea that a lack of ironclad evidence doesn't justify remaining idle.
"We have a lot of other types of human activity where we don't require absolute proof before we take action," he said.
Interviewed afterward, Cicerone said he was unsure whether people would act in time to make prudent choices on cutting back carbon emissions.
"I wish I could say yes but I don't know," he said. "There are two ways in which humans change their behavior. One is if they see crises and the other is if they can respond to a slow accumulation of rational indications. I hope there's no crisis that comes. I'd rather see us respond to this slow accumulation of facts and rational conclusions."
Just The Facts
Phil Needleman, interim president of both the St. Louis Science Center and the Danforth Plant Science Center, said the presentation had been forthright and revealing.
"What people heard was facts. Science is about facts," he said. "It wasn't controversy. It wasn't theories. It was a rich core of data that was elegantly laid out."
Audience members Tom Applewhite and Steven Donner, each 24, agreed. The city residents are starting a renewable energy consulting company and said they stopped by to gain insight on the topic of global warming.
"One thing we've been doing is staying away from this issue so as not to cause clients any type of anger or frustration because we don't know their views on climate change," Applewhite said. "But after tonight I feel I can speak more freely about the issue because I have more of an informed opinion."
Cicerone has a long history on the issue of climate change.
The Franklin Institute recognized his work on greenhouse gases and ozone depletion in 1999 by naming him laureate for the Bower Award and Prize for Achievement in Science.
Two years later, he led a National Academy of Sciences study of the current state of climate change at the request of President George W. Bush.
In 2007, the University of Michigan created a distinguished professorship of atmospheric science in his honor.
He has also served as president of the Geophysical Union, the world's largest society of Earth scientists.
His appearance was timed to coincide with an exhibit on climate change by the Science Center.
David Baugher is a freelance writer in St. Louis.