This article first appeared in the St. Louis Beacon, Jan. 21, 2013 - WASHINGTON – Bolstered by a convincing electoral victory and what may be a slowly rejuvenating economy, President Barack Obama begins his second term with high hopes for restoring the nation’s optimism and burnishing his legacy.
But lawmakers say Obama – setting the tone with his inaugural speech – must show leadership and engage his opponents to make progress on issues such as the economy, immigration reform, gun control and health care before his administration enters the lame duck phase that afflicts second-term presidents.
Update: In his soaring inaugural address, Obama said the nation was "made for this moment" to meet its challenges, but contended that divisive politics has impeded progress on some major issues.
“We cannot mistake absolutism for principle, or substitute spectacle for politics, or treat name-calling as reasoned debate,” Obama said. “We must act; we must act knowing that our work will be imperfect.”
Emphasizing the nation's founding principles, Obama said the country needs to come together to accomplish things that individuals cannot do on their own, and he defended entitlements such as Social Security and Medicare.
“Being true to our founding documents does not require us to agree on every contour of life,” the president said. “Progress does not compel us to settle centuries-long debates about the role of government for all time, but it does require us to act in our time.” End update
Senior White House adviser David Plouffe said Sunday on CNN's State of the Union that the speech was intended to be hopeful to “remind the country that our founding principles and values can guide us in a modern, changing world.
Plouffe and other advisers say Obama, untainted by personal scandal, is well aware that he needs to avoid the type of mistakes that have tarnished the second terms of other recent American presidents: George W. Bush’s financial crisis and Hurricane Katrina missteps; Bill Clinton’s impeachment; Ronald Reagan’s Iran-Contra morass; and Richard Nixon’s Watergate.
Prospects appear to be good for some second-term progress. But both Democrats and Republicans on Capitol Hill tend to agree that – with the GOP in control of the U.S. House – the Obama administration’s success in dealing with Congress will be an essential element in the success or failure of his agenda.
“I’m hoping this new Congress will have a new spirit of compromise, and we can get more done,” said U.S. Sen. Claire McCaskill, D-Mo., in an interview after her swearing-in to a second Senate term. “Because [doing] the hard stuff takes that.”
U.S. Sen. Roy Blunt, R-Mo., the fifth-ranking Senate GOP leader, said congressional Republicans are “realistic” about the need to work with Obama’s administration on major issues. “To get things done, there’s no option other than to work with the president,” he said in an interview.
“But the president needs to understand that this election sent a mixed message to Washington and as a leader he has to figure out which direction he can lead in that actually produces a reasonable result.”
On the liberal side, the new dean of Missouri’s House delegation, U.S. Rep. William Lacy Clay, D-St. Louis, expressed confidence that Obama – unfettered by the pressures of reelection – will rededicate himself to progressive issues.
“The president and this administration have been true partners for progress with St Louis,” Clay told the Beacon. “And I’m confident that we will continue to advance a progressive agenda on jobs, education, health care, housing, and restoring economic security for working families.”
Recent polls suggest that – heading into Monday’s inaugural ceremonies – more Americans are optimistic than pessimistic about Obama’s second term. A Huffington Post/YouGov survey found that 39 percent believe Obama will accomplish more in his second term versus 22 percent who think he’ll accomplish less.
About a quarter of those polled predicted the president will do about the same as his first term. In general, experts say that term’s major achievements included health-care reform, successful measures to revive the U.S. auto industry, and the targeted strikes against Osama bin Laden and other terrorists.
However, several surveys in the last month or so have found that Americans are less positive on the outlook for the U.S. economy or the potential for greater cooperation between Democrats and Republicans in Washington.
Acknowledging that “we have been stuck on ideological differences,” McCaskill said she hoped Congress will bridge some of those gaps to make progress.
“I am somebody who feels very much that the only way we get the hard problems solved is by all of us being a little unhappy” with the solution, she told the Beacon.
“You don’t get everything you want if you expect to get something done around here.”
Spending deal, economic boost among priorities
Despite the new president’s overall eloquence, there were few memorable and no “historic” lines in Obama’s first inaugural speech – a missed opportunity he hoped to make up for Monday with his second address.
“He will lay out his vision for his second term and where he thinks the country needs to go in the years ahead, the values undergirding that,” Plouffe said Sunday. Obama will offer a “detailed agenda” in his State of the Union address on Feb. 12.
The most pressing issue – likely to come to a head by March – is reaching a deficit-reduction deal that can avoid the across-the-board cuts of the scheduled “sequester” and raise the debt ceiling without hurting the nation’s credit rating.
While they may agree to put off the debt limit debate for a few months, Republicans are pressing hard for major spending cuts and a plan for entitlement reforms.
“The president may want to change the debate and the dialogue, but those [fiscal] issues are imminent and will have a great impact, in terms of our economy,” said U.S. Rep. Ann Wagner, R-Ballwin, in an interview.
“I want to see leadership from the president and the Senate on some of the issues of a fiscal nature. Those are the most pressing issues now.”
While McCaskill concedes that the last-minute New Year’s Day deal to avoid the fiscal cliff “wasn’t pretty,” she pointed out that “it did represent compromise. To me, that’s a really positive development.”
On the debt ceiling, Clay said he expected a solution to be worked out. “If we don’t act responsibly, then we will not be paying our bills. And our credit rating will go down again. I don’t think anybody wants to see that happen.”
“I don’t know how much more we can wring out of Medicare and Medicaid,” Clay said. “If we go forward and fully implement the Affordable Care law, the states will benefit from expanding Medicaid rolls to allow for most Americans to have health care coverage.
“That will make for a healthier country. We have to weigh the benefits of the new law and be careful about how we make Medicare more solvent for future generations.”
Progress on immigration reform?
As the debt and spending issues are being debated, Obama’s administration is likely to tackle immigration reform and gun violence. There appears to be a good chance of progress on immigration, but prospects for a major gun control initiative seem dim.
U.S. Sen. Dick Durbin, D-Ill., the Senate's No. 2 Democrat and a longtime champion of the Dream Act – which would create a path to citizenship for some U.S.-born children of undocumented immigrants – wants to revive that effort. He is a member of the bipartisan “gang of eight” senators who are pushing for major immigration reform this year.
Many observers believe that Republicans' realization that their hard line on illegal immigration had cost them Latino votes in the November election has opened the door to a potential compromise on immigration reform – sooner rather than later.
Two possible GOP presidential contenders for 2016 – U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., and U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan, R-Wis., have expressed support for plans to allow many “Dreamers” to earn a path to permanent residency. And Obama wants Congress to consider a comprehensive immigration bill early this year.
“There are three different immigration problems: One is securing the border, two is what are the legitimate workforce needs of the country, and three is what do we do with people who either came here without documents or – as often as not – stayed without documents,” Blunt said.
“I think that Nos. 2 and 3 are fairly easy to solve if you ever convince people that you had a real handle on the first problem” – securing the border, Blunt added. He said a compromise might include some sort of national identification as well as tougher penalties on firms that knowingly hire illegal immigrants.
Gun control, mental health are major issues
While gun control was mostly ignored during this fall’s presidential campaign, last month’s massacre of 20 schoolchildren and six teachers and administrators at Sandy Hook school in Connecticut last month spurred Obama into action.
His legislative proposals and executive orders – announced with Vice President Joe Biden at a White House ceremony last week – will be the focus on the administration’s second-term efforts to try to lessen such violence by addressing issues of gun control as well as the need for improvements in the nation's mental health services.
Clay praised Obama for his aggressive response to “the epidemic of gun violence in this country,” and expressed support for “a renewal of the assault weapons ban, a ban on high-capacity magazine clips, universal background checks for all gun purchases and ending on-line sales of firearms and ammunition.”
McCaskill also said some of Obama’s proposals – such as limiting the size of ammunition magazine clips – make sense. “The tragedy in Newtown, along with other tragedies that haven't seen the national spotlight, shows a clear need for us to focus on practical solutions,” McCaskill said in a statement.
“We can protect our communities and our kids, while also protecting the Second Amendment rights of law-abiding Americans.”
But Wagner, who represents House GOP freshmen at the leadership table, is among the many House Republicans who are skeptical of Obama’s gun-control initiative. “I found it very disappointing that the president has the arrogance to put out threats of executive orders or signing them directly and circumventing, not just the Congress but the American people,” she said in an interview.
“We want to have a discussion about violence in our society, but it needs to be a comprehensive discussion that includes guns but also talks about mental health issues, school safety, and what our children are exposed to.”
Like Wagner, Blunt is skeptical that Congress would go along with Obama gun control proposals such as reviving the assault weapons ban. But he said, “There’s a real opportunity to look at mental health ... There’s a real opportunity to look at how we share information” on potential threats.
“I think some things could be done” on social issues related to gun violence, Blunt said, “but both [Senate Majority Leader] Harry Reid and [House Speaker] John Boehner basically said they don’t think much is going to be done on the Second Amendment front or the gun front.
“But let’s see if there’s a proposal that could make a difference. And, if there is, we ought to look at it and see what impact it would really have.”
Facing congressional opposition and no cooperation from the National Rifle Association, Obama may opt to focus on the longer-term goal of trying to sway public opinion and heighten pressure on lawmakers to agree to changes.
He announced last week that he is transforming his 2012 campaign apparatus into an advocacy tool that – in conjunction with existing gun-control groups – wants to bolster the grassroots efforts to exert political pressure and counter the NRA's influence on gun control.
Job growth, health care, Afghanistan pose challenges
Several of Obama’s second-term priorities stem directly from the unfinished business of his first term, lawmakers and policy expert say.
Among those challenges are stimulating job growth, effectively implementing – and perhaps improving – the "Obamacare" health care program, and withdrawing U.S. troops from Afghanistan in a way that does not leave a dangerous void in the region.
Durbin is among the lawmakers who have suggested a greater federal commitment to infrastructure improvements – including more investment in rail lines – as a way to help put more Americans back to work.
Noting that the U.S. spends only about 2.5 percent of its gross domestic product on infrastructure – in contrast to the 5 percent level of many European nations – Durbin has called for more federal support to rebuild the power grid, highways, bridges and locks and dams on the upper Mississippi River.
The administration is also looking at economic stimulus initiatives. On the implementation of the Affordable Care Act, Plouffe said Sunday that the Obama administration has no plans to delay it but will “implement it smartly.”
And Obama wants to speed the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan this and next year, he said last week after meeting with Afghan President Hamid Karzai at the White House. He also wants to reduce U.S. financial support for the Afghan national security forces after 2015.
On Friday, two Senate Democrats – including U.S. Sen. Carl Levin of Michigan, who chairs the Armed Services Committee – urged Obama to reconsider plans to cut back the Afghan forces from 352,000 to 230,000 after 2015. They said a robust Afghan force will be needed to continue the fight against insurgents.
Administration officials have said they are considering keeping between 3,000 and 9,000 U.S. troops in Afghanistan after 2014 – fewer soldiers than the top U.S. commander there had initially suggested.
As the U.S. draws down its forces abroad, McCaskill wants to work with the administration to tighten accountability of wartime contractors and rein in wasteful spending. Instead of funding infrastructure projects in Afghanistan that the country could not sustain itself, McCaskill wants to use some of the money to improve U.S. roads and bridges.
Infrastructure work is just one part of what may be an Obama administration effort to add a job creation element to any spending agreement this winter. The nation’s employers added 155,000 jobs in December, but the jobless rate remained at 7.8 percent – a level which all sides agree is far too high.
Republicans contend that Obama could boost jobs by approving private-sector project such as the Keystone pipeline, which would transport shale oil from Canada to the U.S Gulf Coast.
“The president has a real opportunity – with the Interior secretary and the EPA director leaving – to find somebody who can work [with Congress] to use this great economic advantage we now know we have in oil and gas,” Blunt argued.
Turning up the heat on climate change issues
Last month, Obama said energy and climate change would be high on his second-term agenda – especially after the devastation caused by Hurricane Sandy heightened concerns about what appear to be changes in severe weather patterns.
“I am a firm believer that climate change is real, that it is impacted by human behavior and carbon emissions,” Obama said shortly after his re-election. “And as a consequence, I think we have an obligation to future generations to do something about it.”
Update: In his inaugural address, Obama gave a ringing endorsement to the scientific findings of climate change and implied that such changes had exacerbated some severe weather events.
“We will respond to the threat of climate change, knowing that failure to do so would betray our children and future generations,” Obama said.
“Some may still deny the overwhelming judgment of science, but none can avoid the devastating impact of raging fires, and crippling drought, and more powerful storms.”
End update
The Obama administration is likely to continue federal investments in clean energy and Plouffe said Sunday that the president would continue to pressure Congress to eliminate tax breaks for the oil and gas industry – as well as other tax loopholes – as part of its deficit-reduction package.
It remains to be seen whether Obama will end up being more combative – or more conciliatory – in dealing with his opponents on Capitol Hill during his second term. In recent appearances, he has appeared to show more fire in pushing for gun control and defending his tax and budget priorities.
The film “Lincoln” – which depicted that president’s battle to get the reluctant House to approve the 13th Amendment abolishing slavery – seems to have sparked Obama’s interest. He recently invited the film’s director, lead actor and screenwriter to the White House for dinner: Steven Spielberg, Daniel Day Lewis and Pulitzer Prize winning playwright Tony Kushner.
Obama’s first term as president “has perhaps cost him more on a personal, and even energy, level than most of his predecessors,” Kushner told the New York Times. “Because he was most entirely an outsider” when he began.
Has Obama learned in his first four years to achieve more goals as an insider?
Blunt, a former American history teacher, told Fox News Sunday that he thinks Obama should take a hint from Lincoln’s approach and tightly define his legislative goals and use a “cooperative leadership effort” to work relentlessly to gain their approval.
“The lesson of that movie, I think, was: When hard things get done, they get done because a president decided he was going to do what was necessary to get them done,” said Blunt.
“And that means you’ve got to realistically look at the world you live in and the [Congress] you’ve been given by the American voters to work with.”