This article first appeared in the St. Louis Beacon, Jan. 7, 2013 - There are plenty of metaphors and, for some, not-suitable-for-work adjectives used to describe the Missouri General Assembly. One of the more apt ones could be a beehive, a place of industrious cooperation.
Clunky analogies aside, the most important question this year just may be: How well will legislators get along with each other and with Gov. Jay Nixon? These relationships -- as well as legislative procedures and tradition -- may spell the difference between success and failure.
Here are five questions to consider before legislators reconvene on Wednesday. We'll check in on how legislators are progressing at the mid-point.
Can Republicans get along with each other?
Because of the way the two chambers are structured, there's bound to be friction between the fast-paced House and the more deliberate Senate. That's typically been the case regardless of the party in power.
But antipathy between the two legislative bodies has been particularly noticeable in recent years, culminating with a high-profile failure in 2011 to pass wide-ranging economic development legislation. Things got even tenser within the Missouri Senate, as evidenced last year by the difficulty to pass the state's budget.
But things may be changing. Both incoming Senate President Pro Tem Tom Dempsey, R-St. Charles, and House Speaker Tim Jones, R-Eureka, have pledged to work more cohesively together. And both chambers have seen quite a bit of turnover, including the departure of several senators who slowed down the legislative process.
Those early signals don't guarantee future tranquility. But they certainly don't hurt.
What role will Democrats play?
Being the minority party in the Missouri House is difficult. In a recent Beacon profile, Dempsey noted how getting a bill heard in committee let alone passed was a laborious process when his party was in the minority.
Still, House Democrats could still contribute by working in committees or with amendments to make legislative changes. And if they band together, they can prevent Nixon's veto from being overriden on bills with some GOP dissension such as measures important to organized labor.
In the Senate, small groups of lawmakers can stall legislation. And that's how Democrats may make their mark not only in slowing bills down but helping craft the final details.
We'll be working with the majority to find areas where we agree and move forward, said incoming Senate minority leader Jolie Justus, D-Kansas City, last year. And in areas where we disagree, we'll have to do what we've done the last few years, which is either to stop things from happening or mitigate what we consider to be bad policy.
What impact would potential lt. governor vacancy have?
Rightly or wrongly, the lieutenant governor's office has a rather insubstantial reputation. But that doesn't mean a vacancy wouldn't matter.
The above question's become particularly salient since Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder announced his intention to seek the GOP nomination for the 8th Congressional District. (The incumbent, U.S. Rep. Jo Ann Emerson, R-Cape Girardeau, has announced her resignation.) For one thing, people disagree over whether Nixon is statutorily allowed to appoint Kinder's successor, who would likely be a Democrat. It's a near certainty if Nixon would appoint a Democrat to replace Kinder that it'll end up in court.
One potential consequence of a vacancy would be legislative in nature: GOP lawmakers have filed bills requiring a special election in the event of a vacancy in the lieutenant governor's office.If such a bill passes early in the session, Nixon would have 15 days to sign or veto the measure.But things could be complicated ifthe election to replace Emerson is in April because Senate Democrats could merely filibuster any bill until after Kinder leaves.
There are practical consequences if Nixon is ultimately successful in appointing a Democratic lieutenant governor. Since the officeholder presides over the Missouri Senate, a Democrat could make life more difficult for the Republican majority. Such a scenario occurred in 2004, when then-Lt. Gov. Joe Maxwell helped sustain a Democratic filibuster on the last day of session.
Of course, these hypotheticals are just that -- hypothetical. If Kinder's unsuccessful in snagging the GOP nomination in the 8th District, he will remain in office until early 2017.
How many Republicans will be in Missouri House?
The other big unknown besides Kinder's immediate political future is the number of Republicans that will be in the Missouri House throughout the legislative session.
House Republicans woke up on November 7 with 110 members one more than the 109 needed to override a gubernatorial veto. But that number dropped to 109 when Nixon appointed Rep. Don Ruzicka, R-Mt. Vernon, to the state Board of Probation and Parole. While Republicans will likely reclaim that seat, Nixon possesses plenty of leeway on when to call a special election. (Dempsey has publicly called on Nixon to schedule a special election as soon as possible.)
There is also lingering uncertainty about the outcome of southeast Missouri House seat between Rep. Kent Hampton, R-Malden, and former state Rep. Tom Todd, D-Campbell. That contest to represent a chunk of the Bootheel has been winding through the courts over the past few months.
Besides the prospect of Nixon potentially appointing another House Republican to another lucrative position, there's also the looming possibility that a Republican House member such as incoming House Speaker Pro Tem Jason Smith, R-Salem, or Rep. Todd Richardson, R-Poplar Bluff could capture the 8th Congressional District nomination. That would spark another vacancy and one less Republican member to override Nixon's vetoes.
Not having 109 members doesn't mean that Republicans couldn't get House Democrats to cross over to override Nixon's objections especially on bills related to social issues.But dual super-majorities would provide extra leverage for GOP legislators.
Will Nixon and the GOP legislature be adversarial?
Nixon's faced this question since he assumed the governorship in 2009. And if history is any guide, the relationship between the two sides will ebb and flow depending on the issue.
Nixon signed bills over the past few years phasing out the state's franchise tax, providing incentives to Ford and reconfiguring the state's pension system. He's even been willing to go along with controversial endeavors, including legislation to weaken significantly a voter-approved dog breeding measures.
When the governor objected to legislation, Republicans typically had three options: Give up, try to amend the bill during the session or attempt an override. Because Republicans (for now) have veto-proof majorities in both chambers, the third option may become more commonplace. But the super-majorities could also provide the legislature with more leverage to negotiate before they send particular bills to Nixon's desk.
Since Nixon cannot run for another term, he may become more assertive in getting his priorities passed. He's already made a very public statement in favor of expanding Medicaid, a proposal that's likely to spark intense opposition within the Republican legislature.
Given his finite time as chief executive, it'll be intriguing to see if Nixon becomes more aggressive in achieving his goals despite being dealt a difficult legislative hand.
The renamed On the Trail, a weekly column, weaves together some of the intriguing threads from the world of Missouri politics.
