This article first appeared in the St. Louis Beacon, Oct. 3, 2012 - WASHINGTON – For the last few weeks, Americans have been subjected to a tiresome barrage of presidential political ads, countless hours of talk-show chatter, two elaborately staged political conventions and umpteen sound-bite snippets of campaign speeches.
It’s finally time for a one-on-one event. On Wednesday, for the first time, the nation’s voters will have the opportunity to view an hour and a half of real-time drama featuring just two characters (plus moderator), as President Barack Obama and GOP nominee Mitt Romney meet in the first of three debates.
Will the Denver Debate end up being a game-changer in the presidential race, which surveys suggest is tilting toward Obama in several key swing states? Or will the Mile-High discussion, like many political debates, wind up as a game of previously crafted “zinger” one-liners punctuated by prepared remarks and dueling statistics?
Tune in, from 8 to 9:30 p.m. Central Time on Wednesday, to judge for yourself.
Both candidates were scheduled to spend most of Tuesday preparing for the debate – working on complex issues, likely points of contention, presenting positive “body language” (shrugging, sighs and blinking are no-nos), and practicing how to bare the faults of their opponent without being viewed by the public as overly smug or aggressive.
It’s a delicate balancing act, aides say, and it began this week with both candidates going out of their way to try to lower expectations by praising the skills of their opponent. Obama modestly called Romney “a good debater. I’m just OK.”
Begging to differ, Romney told reporters: “The president is obviously a very eloquent, gifted speaker — he’ll do just fine. I’ve, you know, I’ve never been in a presidential debate like this and it will be a new experience.” Lowering expectations even further, Romney unleashed senior adviser Beth Myers to describe Obama as “one of the most talented political communicators in modern history.”
So much for modesty. Viewers probably won’t see much during the debate itself, although both candidates will try to show as much empathy as they can muster.
Obama is indeed a talented speaker, but a bit rusty in debates – having faced no opponents since his sparring with GOP nominee John McCain four years ago. While Obama was rated by many experts as the technical winner of those debates, polls afterward did not indicate that his performance swayed many voters either way.
Romney is regarded as a good debater – as he showed in 23 GOP primary debates. While he was at times a bit wooden, experts said Romney’s only obvious mistakes were his joking offer to Texas Gov. Rick Perry to make a $10,000 bet, and his “for Pete’s sake” remark about hiring illegal immigrants. But the former Massachusetts governor has never performed at the level of a presidential debate.
While only Obama and Romney will be on stage in Denver, the debate also represents a sort of shadow-boxing match between two U.S. senators – John Kerry, D-Mass., and Rob Portman, R-Ohio – who have (or had) presidential ambitions of their own. Kerry, the Democratic nominee who lost to President George W. Bush in 2004, has been playing Obama’s sparring partner; Portman, a finalist to become Romney’s running mate this year, has taken on the role of Obama in the mock debates to help coach Romney.
In what may be a heavy hint about his debate strategy, Romney's advisers say he is likely to accuse Obama of campaign misstatements. And Obama's advisers argue that the president doesn’t bend the facts to his advantage. Said Obama’s top political adviser, David Axelrod: “At the first debate, facts will matter.”
While surrogates will be spinning to journalists before and afterward, the most important player in this week’s debate – other than Obama and Romney – will be the moderator, PBS NewsHour executive editor Jim Lehrer, a time-tested veteran who has moderated 11 presidential debates.
The Commission on Presidential Debates -- set up in 1987 to sponsor and produce debates for presidential and vice presidential candidates – scheduled the initial debate this year to focus on domestic issues, with the next debate on Oct. 16 to be a town-hall format and the third debate on Oct. 22 to concentrate on foreign policy and security. (The vice presidential debate is Oct. 11.)
Lehrer then outlined the format and main topics of this week’s debate, subject to last-minute changes if there are compelling new developments. Three of the 15-minute segments will be on aspects of the economy; one on health care; one on “the role of government”; and one on “governing.” But the topics may not come up in that order.
More important for Romney than Obama?
How important is the debate to the candidates? Because Obama is ahead in most polls, the general consensus is that Romney has more to gain from a strong debate.
And, partly because the debate takes place on the final night of regular-season baseball, a National Journal writer describes its importance to Romney as “the bottom of the ninth inning … trailing his opponent by three, with no runners on. He has to start a last-gasp rally now if he has any hope of victory.”
But the closer baseball analogy might be the bottom of the seventh inning, given that there will be two more presidential debates and a month of campaigning before the election. And, considering the rule that a tie goes to the team on offense – in this case, Obama – Romney may face a slightly tougher challenge.
In the GOP’s view, there are some parallels to 1980, when challenger Ronald Reagan’s strategy was to use his debate with President Jimmy Carter – in that case, a single debate that drew intense national interest – to put viewers at ease that the former actor and governor could hold his own with a sitting president.
That’s why many experts expect Romney to try to land a few zingers. In the 1980 debate, Reagan’s bemused “There you go again,” chiding Carter for alleged misrepresentations – is the one (clearly rehearsed) line that is still remembered, three decades later.
Predictably, leading Democrats and Republicans differed this week on the likely arguments of the candidates and the importance of the debates.
While he contended that “the momentum has shifted in Obama's direction,” U.S. Sen. Dick Durbin, D-Ill., said on CNN that Democrats “are not taking anything for granted – this is still a campaign with three presidential debates left, one vice presidential debate, and four or five events that none of us could predict.”
Using Romney’s “47 percent” gaffe as ammunition, Durbin – one of the president’s most loyal allies – said Obama can argue that Romney “is out of touch with the average American and middle-income family. And he doesn't have a plan that's going to help them have a better situation in the future.”
U.S. Sen. Roy Blunt, R-Mo., an early Romney backer who helped spearhead his efforts to garner support on Capitol Hill, predicted that “if Gov. Romney keeps this debate focused on energy and the government's failure to pursue commonsense domestic policies, he will win the debate and the election.”
Using a line that Romney seems likely to pursue in Denver, Blunt said: “The fact that we've had more months of unemployment above 8 percent under this president than his 11 predecessors combined is great evidence that this administration's policies are not working.”
U.S. Rep. John Shimkus, R-Collinsville, also said he hopes Romney will stress the economy. “The debates will be an opportunity for Gov. Romney to differentiate himself from the president’s policies that have failed our economy,” he said, arguing that “we are not better off today. Gov. Romney can and will do better.”
Do debates make much difference?
Despite all the hype, several studies have found that most presidential debates don’t have much impact on the election.
An analysis by Gallup of election polling trends since the advent of televised presidential debates found “few instances in which the debates may have had a substantive impact on election outcomes.”
The two exceptions were in the 1960 Kennedy vs. Nixon debate and the 2000 Gore vs. G.W. Bush debate – both of which were very close elections “in which even small changes could have determined who won,” Gallup reported.
In two other debates – Carter vs. Ford in 1976 and Kerry vs. Bush in 2004 – there appeared to be signs of movement in the polls after the candidates sparred, “but the debates did not appear to alter the likely outcome.”
For debate aficionados, the Associated Press has compiled an interactive to test your knowledge of presidential debate trivia.
Whether the debates will matter in 2012, both candidates were taking them quite seriously. Romney was holed up in a Denver hotel for debate prep on Tuesday. And Obama was in Nevada for what aides called “a strategy run-through” ahead of the debate.
While the candidates prepared, pundits on all sides of the political fences weighed in this week on every imaginable aspect of the debates. Here are a few examples to ponder in the hours before the candidates take the stage for the Denver Debate:
- How much energy have Romney and Obama devoted to preparing?
- Does body language play a role in presidential debates?
- Will Obama exaggerate certain facts, as Romney contends the president is prone to do? (Countering an anticipated GOP assault, the Democratic National Committee unveiled a new website Tuesday: www.RomneyRyanRevealed.com )
- Is the president’s “No Drama Obama” style a debate asset or a liability?
- Will Romney interrupt the president with what one commentator called “that Master-of-the-Universe, bordering-on-rude way he has”?
Robert Koenig first covered a presidential debate in 1984 between President Ronald Reagan and Democratic challenger Walter Mondale.