This article first appeared in the St. Louis Beacon, Aug. 24, 2012 - As much as Republican U.S. Senate nominee Todd Akin's rape comments have touched off a political firestorm, the behind-the-scenes jockeying to be on the Republican Party's "replacement list" is becoming almost as hot.
Akin, at the moment, is resisting GOP calls for him to step down. But that hasn't stopped many of Missouri's major Republican figures -- officeholders and wannabes -- from lobbying, directly or via allies, to be considered.
Some, such as 2nd District congressional nominee Ann Wagner and state Auditor Tom Schweich, have issued unsolicited press releases in which they don't directly toss in their own names, but do highlight their support for the GOP's aim this fall to defeat U.S. Sen. Claire McCaskill, D-Mo.
Aside from Wagner and Schweich, the crowd of replacements being bandied about includes U.S. Reps. Jo Ann Emerson, R-Cape Girardeau; Blaine Luetkemeyer, R-St. Elizabeth and Vicky Hartzler, R-Harrisonville.
Also getting mentions: former U.S. Attorney (and former state House Speaker) Catherine Hanaway, and Akin's two rivals in the primary, former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman and St. Louis businessman John Brunner.
But in many instances, choosing one of the above would set in motion another round of jockeying to fill the current post.
In short, the "domino effect."
Take, for example, Emerson. If she were named to replace Akin on the ticket, Republicans are already rumbling about who would want to replace her as the Republican candidate for the 8th District congressional post, an office she has held for almost 16 years.
The names mentioned as Emerson's possible replacements include: Steelman, retiring state Sen. Jason Crowell, R-Cape Girardeau, and Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder, who also hails from Cape Girardeau. (A separate panel of Republican leaders would make the selection.)
Choosing Kinder would set off another round of Republican jockeying for his lieutenant governor post.
Some national Republican players – such as the National Review and Ann Coulter – have suggested getting around the domino problem by deploying the traditional "elder statesman" maneuver: Encourage someone like former U.S. Sen. Christopher "Kit" Bond, or former U.S. Attorney General (and former U.S. Sen.) John Ashcroft to be the fill-in. Coulter even tossed out the idea of deploying such a statesman as a write-in candidate, if Akin stands firm.
But so far, Bond and Ashcroft (both now lucrative players in the private sector) have -- directly or via surrogates -- demurred. So has former U.S. Sen. Jim Talent, R-Mo., who was defeated by McCaskill in 2006.
Talent told Beacon Washington correspondent Rob Koenig that he had no interest in becoming the replacement GOP candidate, although Talent still wants Akin to step down. Talent made reference to the won't-serve status of Civil War general William Tecumseh Sherman.
Recap and redux of Akin controversy
The game of political dominoes began within minutes after Sunday's airing on KTVI (Channel 2) of Akin’s comments to KTVI’s Charles Jaco about how women who experience “legitimate rape” rarely get pregnant and can “shut down” to avoid pregnancy.
Many of the nation’s most prominent Republicans -- including presumed presidential nominee Mitt Romney and running mate Paul Ryan -- have called for him to leave the contest. So have Bond, Ashcroft, Talent, former Sen. John C. Danforth and current Sen. Roy Blunt in a joint statement.
Akin has gone on television and radio -- including airing an ad -- in which he has apologized. He also has been soliciting support from fellow social conservatives.
At the moment, Akin remains adamant about staying in the race, and he's defiantly railing against the “party bosses” and “liberal elite” trying to push him out. He has appeared on national TV and radio shows.
On Thursday, he issued the latest of a series of email fundraising appeals that he says have produced at least $100,000 in campaign donations.
Meanwhile, Missouri Republican Party chairman David Cole said in an interview late Thursday: "I have had no discussions with anybody" about a possible replacement for Akin if he would decide to withdraw.
"I'm reading these messages that, oh, there's a backroom deal going on," Cole said. "But I can assure you that if there's a backroom deal going on, it must be in the far back room because it's not going on in any room that I'm in."
"I have not participated in any of those types of discussions or any of those types of deliberations or deal making.," Cole concluded.
But such activities and denials haven't stopped politicians and pundits -- and plain old political junkies -- from fantasizing about the scenarios that might still drive Akin from the race (including, lack of money from major GOP groups) and prompt a Republican replacement.
As of 5 p.m. Tuesday, Akin can no longer simply withdraw. He would have to obtain a court order and pay for reprinting the statewide ballots. A spokeswoman for the secretary of state’s office told the Beacon in an e-mail that “a candidate must request a court order in the circuit court in the county where said candidate resides, where it is to be ‘freely given.’”
Akin has until Sept. 25 to obtain such an order. That's the same day that absentee balloting will begin for the Nov. 6 election.
The replacement scenarios also assume that any of the contenders already running for other offices could also go through the process of getting a court order (and possibly paying ballot-reprinting costs) to withdraw from their current races and move into the U.S. Senate race.
The New York Times, for example, noted on Thursday that the process may not be automatic. And there’s no telling what legal obstacles might arise if multiple candidates withdrew from multiple races.
There also is the potential of a public backlash from undoing the results of the Aug. 7 primary. Democrats – including McCaskill – have implied that replacing Akin would be a slap in the face to the people who supported him and that Republicans might face unwanted consequences at the polls.
With all those caveats in mind, here are some completely hypothetical scenarios of how the political dominoes might fall:
Ann Wagner
Wagner, a Ballwin resident, has served as ambassador to Luxembourg, chairwoman of the Missouri Republican Party and as vice chair of the Republican National Committee. She easily won the Republican nomination in the redrawn 2nd congressional district, Akin's current post. The new district lines encompass areas of St. Louis County, St. Charles County and Jefferson County. Even with redistricting, the 2nd will still lean Republican.
Wagner sent out an unexpected news release Thursday in which she said, in part, "As a staunch defender of the unborn I believe life begins at conception. Todd Akin's comments about rape were wrong and indefensible. Todd has apologized and understands he was wrong in what he said. It is now up to Missouri voters to decide whether they accept his apology...."
Upside: Wagner is close to U.S. Sen. Roy Blunt, R-Mo., who has help lead the GOP effort to persuade Akin to withdraw, along with national Republican leaders. She also is a prodigious fundraiser, vigorous campaigner and has a lot of connections to the national GOP establishment.
Downside: Rumors recently swirled around the prospect of Akin and Wagner switching places, a scenario that prominent GOP consultant Jeff Roe (who has worked on Wagner's campaign) has deemed “preposterous.” Although Wagner has overseen a number of campaigns -- and chaired Blunt's successful 2010 Senate campaign -- she has never run for statewide office herself and isn't a household name outside the St. Louis area.
Who would replace Wagner: Republicans who might be tapped to replace her as the 2nd District candidate could include: St. Charles executive Steve Ehlmann, state Sen. Jane Cunningham, R-Chesterfield, House Majority Leader Tim Jones, R-Eureka, or former Webster Groves City Councilman Randy Jotte. Jotte lost decisively to Wagner in the Aug. 7 primary.
Domino effect: If Cunningham – who had toyed with running for Congress – were the pick, no domino would fall because Cunningham decided against seeking re-election when redistricting shifted her district across the state to Kansas City.
If Ehlmann replaced Wagner, it would likely spark a flurry of action from St. Charles Republicans vying to replace him in that county's top job.
Jones’ selection would mean state House Republicans would have to elect a new speaker, since he's been tapped to take over as of January.
Tom Schweich
Schweich, a Republican from Clayton, had served several posts in Washington, D.C., and overseas before he came home and subsequently ousted then-state Auditor Susan Montee, a Democrat, in 2010. Schweich is close to former U.S. Sen. John Danforth, who initially touted him as an alternative to Blunt in the 2010 U.S. Senate contest. (Danforth is also among the leaders who have called for Akin's departure.)
Schweich also is on good terms with Romney, with the latter helping Schweich raise money in 2010 -- and Schweich endorsing Romney's presidential bid.
Upside: Like Wagner, Schweich is a good fundraiser. Unlike Wagner, he also has a statewide victory under his belt. And unlike many other Missouri officeholders, his term isn't up until 2014 -- meaning, if he lost a Senate bid, he'd still hold a statewide office. (The state auditor’s office has been an effective launching pad for other officeholders, including McCaskill and Bond.)
Downside: Schweich's association with Danforth could pose a strain with social conservatives, some of whom have long been wary of the former senator's more moderate leanings on social issues. If Schweich succeeded in defeating McCaskill, it would allow the governor to name his replacement to fill out the rest of the state auditor term. If Gov. Jay Nixon, a Democrat, is re-elected, then Schweich's replacement in the state auditor's office would almost assuredly be a Democrat. If Republican Dave Spence wins the governor's race, the auditor's post would remain in GOP hands.
Who could replace Schweich: A bevy of possible candidates, in the legislature and various county courthouses, would most likely flock to whoever is governor.
Jo Ann Emerson
The Republican from Cape Girardeau is the most senior member of the Missouri congressional delegation. She easily has won re-election in the past in the 8th congressional district, a massive GOP stronghold that with redistricting spans across southeast and southern Missouri. Emerson earlier had considered the idea of running for the U.S. Senate but eventually chose to run for re-election instead.
Upside: The Emerson name is a known commodity in southeast and southern Missouri, especially since Jo Ann Emerson replaced her husband – Bill Emerson – who served in Congress from 1981 until his death in 1996. With the exception of her first election, Emerson hasn’t faced a serious challenge. Even so, she is known for her well-organized political organization.
Downside: Emerson’s voting record is a mix of conservative views -- she's staunchly against the Affordable Care Act -- and some moderate stances that have in the past caused her political problems with social conservatives. She has supported embryonic stem cell research and is friendlier to labor unions than most Republicans. (Her husband – Ron Gladley – is a prominent St. Louis labor attorney and a Democrat.)
Emerson is the chairwoman of the Subcommittee on Financial Services and General Government, an offshoot of the powerful House Appropriations Committee. By running for the U.S. Senate, she risks losing considerable influence in the U.S. House.
Who could replace Emerson: Of all the candidates, Emerson's move could be potentially the most disruptive. Some of the most talked-about replacements include:
- Missouri Republican Party executive director Lloyd Smith, who stepped away from being Emerson’s chief of staff to take his current role. Since Smith is not currently elected to anything, his replacement of Emerson wouldn't set off another domino effect.
- State Sen. Jason Crowell, R-Cape Girardeau, who is barred from running again due to term limits. While Crowell would seem like a logical choice, he has often clashed with higher-ups in his local party. Moreover, Crowell has stressed numerous times – both to the Beacon and elsewhere – that he has no interest in running for Congress.
- Steelman, who came in third in the GOP primary. Since Steelman, a Rolla native, is out of office, she also would not create a domino effect.
- Kinder, who previously worked for Bill Emerson before moving into the private sector. Kinder is seeking a third term as lieutenant governor and recently survived a brutal primary against state Sen. Brad Lager, R-Savannah.
Domino effect: A choice of Kinder would mean a new nominee for lieutenant governor. The most obvious choice would be Lager. If Lager won in November, defeating Montee, the Democratic nominee, Republicans would need a replacement for his state Senate seat.
Blaine Luetkemeyer
Luetkemeyer, R-St. Elizabeth, is the only potential replacement among the congressional contenders who has run for statewide office. He lost decisively in 2004 to Steelman in a battle for state treasurer. (Steelman and Schweich are the two talked-about replacements who have won statewide office.)
But Luetkemeyer's loss may have been a blessing in disguise, as it gave him insight on how to win the expensive and highly watched 2008 scramble for Missouri’s 9th congressional district seat.
Luetkemeyer's district has been dramatically revamped and has been renamed the 3rd congressional district seat that stretches from mid-Missouri to St. Charles. That district is arguably more Republican -- but more suburban -- than his old 9th District seat.
Upside: Luetkemeyer has run for statewide office before. And while he holds virtually the same socially conservative views as Akin, he is generally less prone to making controversial statements. He also has used some of his own money to help fund his previous campaigns -- a plus with GOP leaders.
Downside: Luetkemeyer is a member of the House Financial Services Committee, which focuses on the nation’s banking regulations. Since his district is safely Republican, he could have the opportunity to build seniority and become an influential figure in an important realm of public policy. That’s the type of reasoning that compelled U.S. Rep. Sam Graves – a Republican from Tarkio, Mo., who leads the House Small Business Committee – to decide early on against running for the U.S. Senate.
Who could replace Luetkemeyer: Since the 3rd District is so big, it would attract plenty of candidates from mid-Missouri and the outer rings of the St. Louis metro area. Some potential players: state Sen. Scott Rupp, R-Wentzville, state Sen. Brian Nieves, R-Washington, or state Sen. Mike Kehoe, R-Jefferson City.
Domino effect: The further domino effect depends completely on who replaces Luetkemeyer. Rupp, Nieves and Kehoe have two years left in their current Senate terms, so a special election to replace any of them would have to be held.
Vicky Hartzler
Hartzler pulled off one of the most improbable political feats in recent Missouri history by defeating U.S. Rep. Ike Skelton in 2010. Skelton, a Lexington Democrat who had been in office for several decades, was the chairman of the powerful House Armed Services Committee before Hartzler knocked him out. Before she won election to Congress, Hartzler was a state representative for two terms.
Upside: Out of all the potential candidates, Hartzler probably holds socially conservative views that are closest to Akin. In 2004, she was in charge of a successful Missouri campaign to pass a constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage. She also has proved to be a formidable campaigner.
Downside: The same conservative views that make Hartzler attractive to some voters could also be a disadvantage. Hartzler has been at the center of controversy because of her statements against gay marriage and questions about President Barack Obama’s citizenship. She has also never run statewide before, although her current 4th District does cover a large area.
One wrinkle is that her Democratic opponent this fall – Cass County Prosecutor Teresa Hensley – is one of the more well-funded congressional challengers of the 2012 election cycle. That would mean Hartzler’s replacement would have to be ready to mount an expensive congressional campaign very quickly.
Some potential Republican replacements: state Sen. Kurt Schaefer, R-Columbia, state Sen. David Pearce, R-Warrensburg, former state Sen. Delbert Scott, R-Lowry City, and state Rep. Stanley Cox, R-Sedalia.
Domino effect: Scott – a former long-time state legislator close to Hartzler who left the Missouri Senate due to term limits – wouldn’t cause a domino effect.
But the choice of Schaefer, Pearce or Cox could be tricky because all are running for seats in the Missouri General Assembly. Schaefer, the Senate Appropriations chairman, also faces a strong Democratic challenger -- state Rep. Mary Still -- which could pose a problem if he's replaced by another Republican late in the campaign.
In other words, more dominoes.
Beacon Washington correspondent Robert Koenig contributed information to this report.
