This article first appeared in the St. Louis Beacon, Nov. 15, 2011 - St. Louis Mayor Francis Slay, a Democrat, doesn't buy the conventional wisdom espoused by many political pundits and professors that President Barack Obama has little chance of carrying Missouri in 2012 -- and knows it.
As he helped open Obama's campaign office downtown, the mayor said Monday night that ;he was confident many Missourians share the president's approach for expanding access to health care, improving education, seeking tax equity and creating jobs -- particularly when contrasted with the views of his Republican rivals.
"This is a person who understands and supports cities, who understands issues,'' Slay told several hundred Democrats who crowded into the new campaign quarters at 1925 Washington Avenue.
The mere fact that Obama is opening up a St. Louis campaign office so early is evidence that he's not writing off the state, Slay added.
St. Louis County Executive Charlie Dooley, who kicked off the festivities, noted that Obama lost Missouri in 2008 by fewer than 4,000 votes -- "less than one vote per precinct" -- to Republican John McCain. Dooley told the crowd that a little more effort in 2012 could put the president over the top.
Later, in a brief interview, the mayor also offered a political reason to bolster Missouri Democrats' hopes: the party's well-known list of Democratic statewide officials seeking re-election -- and, as the Beacon noted last week, the state GOP's lack of one.
"We've got a popular governor on the Democratic side,'' Slay said, referring to Gov. Jay Nixon. So far, said the mayor, Nixon has no announced Republican opponent. (Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder, who had been expected to lead the GOP challenge, has yet to formally declare.)
Obama Helped by Lack of Gop Lineup?
U.S. Sen. Claire McCaskill, D-Mo., also is "running an aggressive campaign,'' the mayor said. (He didn't mention her three Republican rivals -- businessman John Brunner, former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman and U.S. Rep. Todd Akin of Wildwood -- who mainly are jockeying among themselves at the moment.)
Slay then took note of the Democratic Party's other statewide officeholders -- Attorney General Chris Koster and state Treasurer Clint Zweifel -- who have no Republican candidates lining up to challenge them. Slay already has endorsed the most prominent Democrat running for lieutenant governor: former state Auditor Susan Montee.
(The mayor didn't mention the lesser-known statewide Democratic candidate, state Rep. Jason Kander, D-Kansas City, who jumped in the secretary of state's race within an hour after incumbent Democrat Robin Carnahan announced she wasn't seeking a third term. Kander has been quickly rounding up urban support in St. Louis and Kansas City. So far, he's ignoring the three Republicans competing for that post.)
The mayor's overall point: "Having a locally strong ticket helps the national ticket. That will help Obama statewide."
That's particularly true, Slay continued, since the state Republican Party is still trying to get a statewide slate together.
As it stands, the GOP only has announced candidates for the U.S. Senate, lieutenant governor and secretary of state. The Republican lieutenant governor field is unsettled, since the expected nominee -- House Speaker Steve Tilley, R-Perryville -- dropped out last week. St. Charles lawyer Mike Carter has announced. State Sen. Brad Lager, R-Savannah, and St. Louis developer Chris McKee announced their GOP bids Monday; more are expected to follow.
Dooley said that Democrats simply need to get energized and get moving to win "one city, one neighborhood at a time."
Dooley and Slay -- neither will be on the ballot in 2012 -- say they'll do their best to help.
Will Supporters Work As Well As Vote?
Obama's local campaign team, led by state director Erin McCann, emphasized that -- a year away from the election -- it's not paying attention to rhetoric. Instead it is focused on assembling volunteers and building a grassroots army.
The St. Louis office is the first of several campaign offices planned around the state, McCann said.
Susie Hochman of Clayton is one of the Obama team's volunteer leaders, with the job of reaching out to identified Obama supporters in 2008 and persuading them to sign up again.
Hochman said that, so far, she's run only into a handful who don't plan to vote for Obama in 2012.
"What I'm getting is, more than half are overwhelmingly 'yes,' with no qualification,'' she said. Of the remainder, she said, some are "not completely happy'' but have no plans to vote for a Republican nominee.
But Hochman is having a harder time getting those supporters, of any enthusiasm level, to agree to volunteer for Obama's re-election, as they did in 2008. "Many are for the president but don't want to work for the president,'' she said.
Hochman explained, for example, that she has been having a tougher time getting people to agree to host house parties and other campaign-related events.
Hochman surmised that "people don't want to be having these events so early." She's optimistic that their enthusiasm will increase now that the 2012 election is less than a year away.
And as Slay sees it, the public's support for Nixon or McCaskill could begin to help the president out.
The mayor warned the supporters packing the new campaign office to be prepared for a flurry of campaign ads, paid for by independent groups bankrolled by secret donors, that are filled with "untruths, and some of them with 'no truths.' "