This article first appeared in the St. Louis Beacon, Feb. 24, 2011 - For the first time, St. Charles County has surpassed the city of St. Louis in population -- underscoring the region's continued westward expansion.
The latest numbers for the 2010 census -- released this afternoon -- show that St. Charles County's population has grown almost 27 percent. Although it's not the state's largest percentage increase, St. Charles' additional 76,000 residents is the largest statewide hike in sheer numbers -- and should help bolster the county's growing political clout.
St. Charles County's official 2010 population figure is 360,484, making it Missouri's third-largest county. The No. 2 spot is held by Jackson County, which includes Kansas City and reported an increase of 2.9 percent.
The city of St. Louis, which was No. 3 in 2000, is now the state's 4th largest county, with a population of 319,294. That's a decline of 29,000 since 2000 and represents 8 percent of the city's previous population.
By comparison, St. Louis County remains the state's largest by a huge margin, although it saw a 1.7 percent decline in the number of residents, to 998,954. In 2000, the county reported just over 1 million residents.
The new census numbers document that the region is continuing to experience the "doughnut hole effect,'' with declines in the city of St. Louis and inner suburbs.
The latest figures also demonstrate why the city could lose out in the redrawing of the state's congressional districts. Missouri is losing a district, and many Republicans in Jefferson City want the St. Louis area to bear the brunt of that loss.
Although the city of St. Louis' population drop was its smallest in decades, St. Louis Mayor Francis Slay made no secret of his disappointment. "This is absolutely bad news," he wrote on his blog.
Slay's staff swiftly began probing the details of the city's numbers, to see if they could detect any obvious errors by the U.S. Census that could result in more population for the city.
"We had thought, given many of the other positive trends, that 50 years of population losses had finally reversed direction," the mayor wrote. "Combined with the news from St. Louis County, I believe that this will require an urgent and thorough rethinking of how we do almost everything."
Concluded Slay: "If this doesn't jump-start regional thinking, nothing will."
A spokesman for St. Louis County Executive Charlie Dooley said he wouldn't comment until he and his staff had more closely examined the new census numbers.
But St. Charles County Executive Steve Ehlmann was happy to discuss his county's continued growth. Ehlman said that St. Charles County was growing even faster three years ago, before tough economic times hit.
"It has slowed down significantly since the beginning of the recession," Ehlmann said, "so we weren't real sure what the numbers would be like.
"It depends on the economy overall. When the economy was growing by leaps and bounds, we were growing by leaps and bounds. When it stopped growing, we quit growing a little bit. So when the economy comes back, we're going to be in a good position to grow."
Ehlmann attributed the growth, in part, to good schools and low crime rates. "When I talk to people, I say the two things we have to be most careful of are schools and neighborhoods," he said.
"People say, 'What about transportation?' But people have proven they'll move to St. Charles County even when the roads are bad. We can fix them later."
Ehlmann wasn't surprised that his county now is larger than the city of St. Louis for the first time. "I knew that if the trends of the past 30-40 years continued, we would be,'' he said.
But Ehlmann also praised Slay and other civic leaders for their efforts to boost growth in the city. "They've really turned things around in some of the neighborhoods down there, so I thought they may have stopped the bleeding and might improve a little bit,'' Ehlmann said. "I knew we would grow; I was just not sure what direction they would go."
St. Louis Area Congressional Districts Key Target
The city of St. Louis' population loss appears to be concentrated in its northern half, a fact that could be significant in the state's redrawing of congressional districts to reflect, in part, its loss of a House seat.
The 1st District of U.S. Rep. William Lacy Clay, D-St. Louis -- which takes in about two-thirds of the city and all of north St. Louis County -- was the only congressional district in the state to report a population decline. The 1st District lost almost 35,000 residents over the past 10 years, the census figures show. That's a drop of 5.6 percent.
The 3rd District, which takes in the southern one-third of the city and parts of west and south St. Louis County, actually has been stable, although its 10-year growth was small -- an additional 3,561 residents.
The 3rd District also includes Jefferson County, which saw a 10.4 percent increase in population over the past decade, represently a numerical gain of about 20,000 people. Jefferson County now is the state's seventh largest.
Still, the 3rd District's congressman -- Democrat Russ Carnahan -- is expected to be the prime target of Republican lawmakers redrawing the state's boundary lines. Why? The 1st District is protected by the federal Voting Rights Act, which protects minority representation among voters and members of Congress.
The region's other major congressional district -- the 2nd -- takes in west and southwest St. Louis County and the eastern half of St. Charles County. That district recorded the second-largest growth in the state, gaining 84,912 residents -- a population jump of almost 14 percent. U.S. Rep. Todd Akin, R-Town and Country, represents the district.
The 9th congressional district, which takes in the western half of St. Charles County -- but also the eastern part of northern Missouri -- reported an overall growth of 10 percent. But in fact, St. Charles County's booming increase offset the 9th's population decline in many of those northern counties. (The district is represented by Blaine Luetkemeyer, a Republican from St. Elizabeth.)
Carnahan said today that the overall growth in the St. Louis area -- even if it was in the outer suburbs -- bolstered the region's case to maintain its congressional representation.
"The region still had some level of growth," he said. "If you do the districts according to regions, the St. Louis area still has the number for three seats."
Clay sidestepped the redistricting issue to focus on economics. "More important than the districts, the region needs to figure out how to grow jobs," Clay said. "We have fine institutions of higher learning here, but we have to figure out how the region can come together and keep those graduates here and how to stop losing population."
Missouri grew in the southwest, shrunk up north
In terms of percentages, the state's largest population losses were mainly in rural areas. At least 27 counties reported population declines, and most of them were in the northern part of the state.
Those northern population losses represent, in part, the continuing decline in the state's agricultural areas and their neighboring communities. Southeast Missouri also saw population drops in many counties.
Meanwhile, the fastest-growing counties were concentrated in southwest Missouri and in exurban St. Louis.
Although St. Charles County added more people than any other county in the state, it only ranked sixth percentage-wise in the contest for fastest-growing counties.
Christian County, in southwest Missouri, reported a whopping 42.6 percent increase in population since 2000. Christian is, in effect, that region's version of suburban St. Charles County. Christian is wedged between Greene County, which includes Springfield, and Taney County, which includes Branson. By the numbers, though, Christian's addition of 23,000 is just over a quarter of St. Charles' gain.
Lincoln County, a collar suburb of St. Louis whose county seat is Troy, Mo., snagged the state's No. 2 spot for fast-growing, with an increase of 35 percent since 2000. But by the numbers, Lincoln's population increase was less than 14,000.
On the region's western edge, Warren County, whose towns include Warrenton and Wright City, came in third with a growth rate of 33 percent -- adding about 8,000 people over the past decade.
Taney came in 4th, with a gain of about 12,000 new residents -- signaling that Branson is continuing to attracting permanent occupants along with its tourism.
Overall, Missouri's population in the 2010 census was recorded as 5,988,927 as of last April 1, 2010. That represents a growth of 393,716 people, or about 7 percent, since the last census in 2000. The nation as whole, however, reported population growth of about 10 percent. That is why Missouri is losing one of its congressional seats.
The state's racial population has become more diverse, with its minority population -- excluding Hispanics -- increasing from 16 percent in 2000 to 19 percent in 2010.
